Sensormatic Solutions Predicts 2026’S Busiest Holiday Shopping Days Around the World

Sensormatic Solutions, the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), today released its annual global predictions for the holiday season’s busiest shopping days. In the U.S., specifically, analysis of its ShopperTrak Analytics traffic data reveals Black Friday (Nov. 27) is predicted to again be the biggest day for holiday store visits, followed by Super Saturday (Dec. 19) and the second Saturday in December (Dec. 12). ShopperTrak Analytics data also points to strong shopper efficiency and spending as key drivers of overall expected holiday performance. This summer, conversion rates increased 5.2% year-over-year while sales per shopper rose 4.8%, indicating shoppers are making more purchases with intention.

“Most purchase journeys now start online, meaning shoppers arrive with a clear idea of what they want in mind and choose retailers they trust to deliver that product with a seamless experience to match,” said Tony D’Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions. “The sale is already done by the time they set foot in the store. The retailer’s job is to meet them at that moment: have the product ready, where it should be and at the right price. If you can do that, you’ll have a happy holiday season.”

What the data shows

Sensormatic Solutions predicts U.S. in-store traffic will peak on Black Friday and remain strong deep into December, with daily visits expected to peak between 2 and 3 p.m. With Christmas falling on a Friday for the first time since 2020, the calendar week leading up to the holiday is likely to see sustained activity with a final peak on Boxing Day (Dec. 26). The data suggests that store visits this holiday season may drop 3.5% year over year, a slight underperformance relative to the year-to-date average (-2.7%). As in years past, the top 10 busiest days are expected to account for between 30% and 40% of total holiday traffic.

“The slightly muted traffic compared to previous years may lead retailers to feel that they’re fighting an uphill battle, but it only tells half of the story,” said Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, whose team predicts the season’s top busiest days. “While individual visits have been trending downward throughout the year, conversion rates are rising. Retailers that recognize the scope of the modern journey and lean on data to inform their approach will be more likely to get those high-intent shoppers through the doors on the days that matter most.”

Based on Sensormatic Solutions U.S. traffic data, the organization predicts that the season’s busiest shopping days will be:

1. Nov. 27 (Black Friday)

2. Dec. 19 (Super Saturday)

3. Dec. 12 (Second Saturday in Dec.)

4. Dec. 26 (Boxing Day)

5. Dec. 23 (Wednesday before Christmas)

6. Dec 20. (Super Sunday)

7. Nov. 28 (Saturday after Black Friday)

8. Dec. 22 (Tuesday before Christmas)

9. Dec. 5 (First Saturday in Dec.)

10. Dec. 21 (Monday before Christmas)

Globally, the busiest shopping days of the holiday rush are expected to be:

For more about Sensormatic Solutions in-store traffic insights and retail analytics technology, visit sensormatic.com/shopper-insights and follow @sensormatic on LinkedIn, using #SensormaticHolidays for all related content.

About Johnson Controls

Johnson Controls, a global leader in thermal management, mission-critical building systems, energy efficiency, and decarbonization, helps customers use energy more productively, reduce carbon emissions, and operate with the precision and resilience required in rapidly expanding industries such as data centers, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and higher education.

For more than 140 years, Johnson Controls has delivered performance where it really matters. Backed by advanced technology, lifecycle services and an industry-leading field organization, we elevate customer performance, turn goals into real-world results and help move society forward.

Visit johnsoncontrols.com for more information and follow @Johnsoncontrols on social platforms.

About Sensormatic Solutions

Sensormatic Solutions, the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls, powers safe, secure and seamless retail experiences. For more than 60 years, the brand has been at the forefront of the industry’s fast-moving technology adoption, redefining retail operations on a global scale and turning insights into actions. Sensormatic Solutions delivers an interconnected ecosystem of loss prevention, inventory intelligence and traffic insight solutions, along with our services and partners to enable retailers worldwide to innovate and elevate with precision, connecting data-driven outcomes that shape retail’s future. Please visit Sensormatic Solutions or follow us on LinkedIn and our YouTube channel.

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